Metabolism is the driving force of life and thereby plays a key role in understanding microbial functioning in monoculture and in ecosystems, from natural habitats to biotechnological applications, from microbiomes related to human health to food production. However, the complexity of metabolic networks poses a major challenge for understanding how they are shaped by evolution and how we can manipulate them. Therefore, many network-based methods have been developed to study metabolism.
With the vast increase of genomic data, genome-scale metabolic networks have become popular use. For these stoichiometric models, metabolic enzymes are predicted using genome data and subsequently algorithms are used to add reactions to construct a complete (biomass producing) metabolic network (e.g., Henry et al., 2010; Machado et al., 2018; see for an overview Mendoza et al., 2019). Many tools are being developed to make predictions with these models, usually variations of FBA (Orth et al., 2010), but also methods for community predictions (Scott Jr et al., 2023) and simulations in time and space (Bauer et al., 2017; Dukovski et al., 2021). The vast amount of sequencing data combined with the high-throughput possibilities of this method make it appealing, but there is a drawback: Namely that the automated construction of networks lacks accuracy and often curation is necessary before these models produce realistic and useful results. This is exemplified by recent studies of microbial metabolism that are better predicted by genome content only than by actual metabolic models (Gralka et al., 2023; Li et al., 2023).

On the other end are well-curated small-scale models of metabolic pathways. For those, knowledge of the enzymes of a pathway, their kinetic properties and (optionally) regulation by metabolites is incorporated in usually a differential equation model. Standard methods for systems of differential equations can be used to study steady-states and the dynamics of these models, which can lead to accurate predictions (Flamholz et al., 2013; van Heerden et al., 2014). However, the downside is that the methods are difficult to scale up and, for many enzymes, the detailed information necessary for these models is not available. Combined with computational challenges, these models are limited to specific pathways and cannot be used for whole cells, nor even communities. Therefore, there is still a need for both methods and models to make accurate predictions on a scale beyond single pathways.

Corrao et al. (2025) aim for an intermediate size model that is both accurate and predictive, does not need an extensive set of enzyme parameters, but also encompasses most of the cell’s metabolic pathways. As they phrase it: a model in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone. Curation can improve genome-scale models substantially but requires additional experimental data. However, as the authors show, even the well-curated model of Escherichia coli can sometimes show unrealistic metabolic flux patterns. A smaller model can be better curated and therefore more predictive, and more methods can be applied, as for example EFM based approaches. The authors show an extensive set of methodologies that can be applied to this model and yield interpretable results. Additionally, the model contains a wealth of standardized annotation that could set a standard for the field.

This is a first model of its kind, and it is not surprising that E. coli is used as its metabolism is very well-studied. However, this could set the basis for similar models for other well-studied organisms. Because the model is well-annotated and characterized, it is very suitable for testing new methods that make predictions with such an intermediate-sized model and that can later be extended for larger models. In the future, such models for different species could aid the creation of methods for studying and predicting metabolism in communities, for which there is a large need for applications (e.g. bioremediation and human health).

The different layers of annotation and the available code with clear documentation make this model an ideal resource as teaching material as well. Methods can be explained on this model, which can still be visualized and interpreted because of its reduced size, while it is large enough to show the differences between methods.

Although it might be too much to expect models of this type for all species, the different layers of annotation can be used to inspire better annotation of genome-scale models and enhance their accuracy and predictability. Thus, this paper sets a standard that could benefit research on metabolic pathways from individual strains to natural communities to communities for biotechnology, bioremediation and human health.

References

Bauer, E., Zimmermann, J., Baldini, F., Thiele, I., Kaleta, C., 2017. BacArena: Individual-based metabolic modeling of heterogeneous microbes in complex communities. PLOS Comput. Biol. 13, e1005544. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005544

Corrao, M., He, H., Liebermeister, W., Noor, E., Bar-Even, A., 2025. A compact model of Escherichia coli core and biosynthetic metabolism. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.16596

Dukovski, I., Bajić, D., Chacón, J.M., Quintin, M., Vila, J.C.C., Sulheim, S., Pacheco, A.R., Bernstein, D.B., Riehl, W.J., Korolev, K.S., Sanchez, A., Harcombe, W.R., Segrè, D., 2021. A metabolic modeling platform for the computation of microbial ecosystems in time and space (COMETS). Nat. Protoc. 16, 5030–5082. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41596-021-00593-3

Flamholz, A., Noor, E., Bar-Even, A., Liebermeister, W., Milo, R., 2013. Glycolytic strategy as a tradeoff between energy yield and protein cost. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110, 10039–10044. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1215283110

Gralka, M., Pollak, S., Cordero, O.X., 2023. Genome content predicts the carbon catabolic preferences of heterotrophic bacteria. Nat. Microbiol. 8, 1799–1808. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-023-01458-z

Henry, C.S., DeJongh, M., Best, A.A., Frybarger, P.M., Linsay, B., Stevens, R.L., 2010. High-throughput generation, optimization and analysis of genome-scale metabolic models. Nat. Biotechnol. 28, 977–982. https://doi.org/10.1038/nbt.1672

Li, Z., Selim, A., Kuehn, S., 2023. Statistical prediction of microbial metabolic traits from genomes. PLOS Comput. Biol. 19, e1011705. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011705

Machado, D., Andrejev, S., Tramontano, M., Patil, K.R., 2018. Fast automated reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic models for microbial species and communities. Nucleic Acids Res. 46, 7542–7553. https://doi.org/10.1093/nar/gky537

Mendoza, S.N., Olivier, B.G., Molenaar, D., Teusink, B., 2019. A systematic assessment of current genome-scale metabolic reconstruction tools. Genome Biol. 20, 158. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13059-019-1769-1

Orth, J.D., Thiele, I., Palsson, B.Ø., 2010. What is flux balance analysis? Nat. Biotechnol. 28, 245–248. https://doi.org/10.1038/nbt.1614

Scott Jr, W.T., Benito-Vaquerizo, S., Zimmermann, J., Bajić, D., Heinken, A., Suarez-Diez, M., Schaap, P.J., 2023. A structured evaluation of genome-scale constraint-based modeling tools for microbial consortia. PLOS Comput. Biol. 19, e1011363. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011363

van Heerden, J.H., Wortel, M.T., Bruggeman, F.J., Heijnen, J.J., Bollen, Y.J.M., Planqué, R., Hulshof, J., O’Toole, T.G., Wahl, S.A., Teusink, B., 2014. Lost in Transition: Start-Up of Glycolysis Yields Subpopulations of Nongrowing Cells. Science 343, 1245114. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1245114
 

The article by Bez et al [1] addresses an important issue for statisticians and ecological modellers: the impact of modelling choices when considering state-space models to represent time series with hidden regimes.

The authors present an empirical study of the impact of model misspecification for models in the HMM and HSMM family. The misspecification can be at the level of the hidden chain (Markovian or semi-Markovian assumption) or at the level of the observed chain (AR0 or AR1 assumption). 

The study uses data on the movements of fishing vessels. Vessels can exert pressure on fish stocks when they are fishing, and the aim is to identify the periods during which fishing vessels are fishing or not fishing, based on GPS tracking data. Two sets of data are available, from two vessels with contrasting fishing behaviour. The empirical study combines experiments on the two real datasets and on data simulated from models whose parameters are estimated on the real datasets. In both cases, the actual sequence of activities is available. The impact of a model misspecification is mainly evaluated on the restored hidden chain (decoding task), which is very relevant since in many applications we are more interested in the quality of decoding than in the accuracy of parameters estimation. Results on parameter estimation are also presented and metrics are developed to help interpret the results. The study is conducted in a rigorous manner and extensive experiments are carried out, making the results robust.

The main conclusion of the study is that choosing the wrong AR model at the observed sequence level has more impact than choosing the wrong model at the hidden chain level.

The article ends with an interesting discussion of this finding, in particular the impact of resolution on the quality of the decoding results. As the authors point out in this discussion, the results of this study are not limited to the application of GPS data to the activities of fishing vessels Beyond ecology, H(S)MMs are also widely used epidemiology, seismology, speech recognition, human activity recognition ... The conclusion of this study will therefore be useful in a wide range of applications. It is a warning that should encourage modellers to design their hidden Markov models carefully or to interpret their results cautiously.

References

[1] Nicolas Bez, Pierre Gloaguen, Marie-Pierre Etienne, Rocio Joo, Sophie Lanco, Etienne Rivot, Emily Walker, Mathieu Woillez, Stéphanie Mahévas (2024) Proper account of auto-correlations improves decoding performances of state-space (semi) Markov models. HAL, ver.3 peer-reviewed and recommended by PCI Math Comp Biol https://hal.science/hal-04547315v3

The article, "Bayesian Joint-Regression Analysis of Unbalanced Series of On-Farm Trials," presents a Bayesian statistical framework tailored for analyzing highly unbalanced datasets from participatory plant breeding (PPB) trials, specifically wheat trials. The key goal of this research is to address the challenges of genotype-environment (G×E) interactions in on-farm trials, which often have limited replication and varied testing conditions across farms.

The study applies a hierarchical Bayesian model with Finlay-Wilkinson regression, which improves the estimation of G×E effects despite substantial data imbalance. By incorporating a Student’s t-distribution for residuals, the model is more robust to extreme values, which are common in on-farm trials due to variable environments.  Note that the model allows a detailed breakdown of variance, identifying environment effects as the most significant contributors, thus highlighting areas for future breeding focus. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods, the study achieves reasonable computation times, even for large datasets. 

Obviously, the limitation of the methods comes from the level of data balance and replication. The method requires a minimum level of data balance and replication, which can be a challenge in very decentralized breeding networks Moreover, the Bayesian framework, though computationally feasible, may still be complex for widespread adoption without computational resources or statistical expertise.

The paper presents a sophisticated Bayesian framework specifically designed to tackle the challenges of unbalanced data in participatory plant breeding (PPB). It showcases a novel way to manage the variability in on-farm trials, a common issue in decentralized breeding programs. 

This study's methods accommodate the inconsistencies inherent in on-farm trials, such as extreme values and minimal replication. By using a hierarchical Bayesian approach with a Student’s t-distribution for robustness, it provides a model that maintains precision despite these real-world challenges. This makes it especially relevant for those working in unpredictable agricultural settings or decentralized trials. From a more general perspective, this paper’s findings support breeding methods that prioritize specific adaptation to local conditions. It is particularly useful for researchers and practitioners interested in breeding for agroecological or organic farming systems, where G×E interactions are critical but hard to capture in traditional trial setups.

Beyond agriculture, the paper serves as an excellent example of advanced statistical modeling in highly variable datasets. Its applications extend to any field where data is incomplete or irregular, offering a clear case for hierarchical Bayesian methods to achieve reliable results.

Finally, although begin quite methodological, the paper provides practical insights into how breeders and researchers can work with farmers to achieve meaningful varietal evaluations.  

References

Michel Turbet Delof , Pierre Rivière , Julie C Dawson, Arnaud Gauffreteau , Isabelle Goldringer , Gaëlle van Frank , Olivier David (2024) Bayesian joint-regression analysis of unbalanced series of on-farm trials. HAL, ver.2 peer-reviewed and recommended by PCI Math Comp Biol https://hal.science/hal-04380787

A prominent challenge in computational biology is to distinguish microbial haplotypes -- closely related organisms with highly similar genomes -- due to small genomic differences that can cause significant phenotypic variations. Current genome assembly tools struggle with distinguishing these haplotypes, especially for long-read sequencing data with high error rates, such as PacBio or Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT) reads. While existing methods work well for either viral or bacterial haplotypes, they often fail with low-abundance haplotypes and are computationally intensive.

This work by Faure, Lavenier, and Flot [1] introduces a new tool -- HairSplitter -- that offers a solution for both viral and bacterial haplotype separation, even with error-prone long reads. It does this by efficiently calling variants, clustering reads into haplotypes, creating new separated contigs, and resolving the assembly graph. A key advantage of HairSplitter is that it is entirely parameter-free and does not require prior knowledge of the organism's ploidy. HairSplitter is designed to handle both metaviromes and bacterial metagenomes, offering a more versatile and efficient solution than existing tools, like stRainy [2], Strainberry [3], and hifiasm-meta [4].

References

[1] Roland Faure, Dominique Lavenier, Jean-François Flot (2024) HairSplitter: haplotype assembly from long, noisy reads. bioRxiv, ver.3 peer-reviewed and recommended by PCI Math Comp Biol https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.02.13.580067

[2] Kazantseva E, A Donmez, M Pop, and M Kolmogorov (2023). stRainy: assembly-based metagenomic strain phasing using long reads. Bioinformatics. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.31.526521

[3] Vicedomini R, C Quince, AE Darling, and R Chikhi (2021). Strainberry: automated strain separation in low complexity metagenomes using long reads. Nature Communications, 12, 4485. ISSN: 2041-1723. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24515-9

[4] Feng X, H Cheng, D Portik, and H Li (2022). Metagenome assembly of high-fidelity long reads with hifiasm-meta. Nature Methods, 19, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-022-01478-3

This article by Clenet et al. [1] tackles a fundamental mathematical model in ecology to understand the impact of the architecture of interactions on the equilibrium of the system.

The authors consider the classical Lotka-Volterra model, depicting the effect of interactions between species on their abundances. They focus on the case whenever there are numerous species, and where their interactions are compartmentalized in a block structure. Each block has a strength coefficient, applied to a random Gaussian matrix. This model aims at capturing the structure of interacting communities, with blocks describing the interactions within a community, and other blocks the interactions between communities.

In this general mathematical framework, the authors demonstrate sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a stable equilibrium, and conditions for which the equilibrium is feasible. Moreover, they derive statistical heuristics for the proportion, mean, and distribution of abundance of surviving species.
While the main text focuses on the case of two interacting communities, the authors provide generalizations to an arbitrary number of blocks in the appendix.

Overall, the article constitutes an original and solid contribution to the study of mathematical models in ecology. It combines mathematical analysis, dynamical system theory, numerical simulations, grounded with relevant hypothesis for the modeling of ecological systems.
The obtained results pave the way to further research, both towards further mathematical proofs on the model analysis, and towards additional model features relevant for ecology, such as spatial aspects.

References

[1] Maxime Clenet, François Massol, Jamal Najim (2023) Impact of a block structure on the Lotka-Volterra model. arXiv, ver.3 peer-reviewed and recommended by Peer Community in Mathematical and Computational Biology. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.09470