PCI Math Comp Biol

Title *

Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemicsuse asterix (*) to get italics

Authors *

Thomas Bénéteau, Baptiste Elie, Mircea T. Sofonea, Samuel AlizonPlease use the format "First name initials family name" as in "Marie S. Curie, Niels H. D. Bohr, Albert Einstein, John R. R. Tolkien, Donna T. Strickland"

Year *

2021

Picture *

Abstract *

<p style="text-align: justify;">Estimating the date at which an epidemic started in a country and the date at which it can end depending on interventions intensity are important to guide public health responses. Both are potentially shaped by similar factors including stochasticity (due to small population sizes), superspreading events, and ‘memory effects’ (the fact that the occurrence of some events, e.g. recovering from an infection, depend on the past, e.g. the number of days since the infection). Focusing on COVID-19 epidemics, we develop and analyse mathematical models to explore how these three factors may affect early and final epidemic dynamics. Regarding the date of origin, we find limited effects on the mean estimates, but strong effects on their variances. Regarding the date of extinction following lockdown onset, mean values decrease with stochasticity or with the presence of superspreading events. These results underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in infection history and transmission patterns to accurately capture early and late epidemic dynamics. </p>

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Keywords (optional)

COVID-19, lockdown, SARS-Cov2, stochastic, non-markovian, epidemy modeling

Methods that require specific expertise (optional)

NonePlease indicate the methods that may require specialised expertise during the peer review process (use a comma to separate various required expertises).

Thematic fields *

Epidemiology, Probability and statistics, Stochastic dynamics

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Submission date

2021-02-23 16:37:32

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Valery Forbes

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